Elections in 2026: a commodity calendar
February 2026 · 7 min read
Elections move commodity prices because they change the rules. In 2026, three votes matter most for global markets.
Brazil's mid-term will set the tone for Amazon enforcement and, by extension, soybean and beef exports. Indonesia's parliamentary elections will determine whether the country's nickel export ban — already a fixture of the EV supply chain — is extended or relaxed. And the US mid-terms will shape the next round of Inflation Reduction Act implementation, with direct consequences for critical minerals demand.
The pattern across all three: resource nationalism is no longer a fringe position. It is the centrist consensus.